Border malaria: defining the problem to address the challenge of malaria elimination.

Border malaria is frequently cited as an obstacle to malaria elimination and sometimes used as a justification for the failure of elimination. Numerous border or cross-border meetings and elimination initiatives have been convened to address this bottleneck to elimination. In this Perspective, border malaria is defined as malaria transmission, or the potential for transmission, across or along shared land borders between countries where at least one of them has ongoing malaria transmission. Border malaria is distinct from malaria importation, which can occur anywhere and in any country. The authors' analysis shows that the remaining transmission foci of malaria-eliminating countries tend to occur in the vicinity of international land borders that they share with neighbouring endemic countries. The reasons why international land borders often represent the last mile in malaria elimination are complex. The authors argue that the often higher intrinsic transmission potential, the neglect of investment and development, the constant risk of malaria importation due to cross-border movement, the challenges of implementing interventions in complex environments and uncoordinated action in a cross-border shared transmission focus all contribute to the difficulties of malaria elimination in border areas. Border malaria reflects the limitations of the current tools and interventions for malaria elimination and implies the need for social cohesion, basic health services, community economic conditions, and policy dialogue and coordination to achieve the expected impact of malaria interventions. Given the uniqueness of each border and the complex and multifaceted nature of border malaria, a situation analysis to define and characterize the determinants of transmission is essential to inform a problem-solving mindset and develop appropriate strategies to eliminate malaria in these areas.

Genetic variants of TLR4, including the novel variant, rs5030719, and related genes are associated with susceptibility to clinical malaria in African children.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a deadly disease caused by Plasmodium spp. Several blood phenotypes have been associated with malarial resistance, which suggests a genetic component to immune protection. METHODS: One hundred and eighty-seven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 37 candidate genes were genotyped and investigated for associations with clinical malaria in a longitudinal cohort of 349 infants from Manhiça, Mozambique, in a randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) (AgeMal, NCT00231452). Malaria candidate genes were selected according to involvement in known malarial haemoglobinopathies, immune, and pathogenesis pathways. RESULTS: Statistically significant evidence was found for the association of TLR4 and related genes with the incidence of clinical malaria (p = 0.0005). These additional genes include ABO, CAT, CD14, CD36, CR1, G6PD, GCLM, HP, IFNG, IFNGR1, IL13, IL1A, IL1B, IL4R, IL4, IL6, IL13, MBL, MNSOD, and TLR2. Of specific interest, the previously identified TLR4 SNP rs4986790 and the novel finding of TRL4 SNP rs5030719 were associated with primary cases of clinical malaria. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight a potential central role of TLR4 in clinical malarial pathogenesis. This supports the current literature and suggests that further research into the role of TLR4, as well as associated genes, in clinical malaria may provide insight into treatment and drug development.

Genomic characterization of the rotavirus G3P[8] strain in vaccinated children, reveals possible reassortment events between human and animal strains in Manhiça District, Mozambique.

Mozambique introduced the rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix®; GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, Rixensart, Belgium) in 2015, and since then, the Centro de Investigação em Saúde de Manhiça has been monitoring its impact on rotavirus-associated diarrhea and the trend of circulating strains, where G3P[8] was reported as the predominant strain after the vaccine introduction. Genotype G3 is among the most commonly detected Rotavirus strains in humans and animals, and herein, we report on the whole genome constellation of G3P[8] detected in two children (aged 18 months old) hospitalized with moderate-to-severe diarrhea at the Manhiça District Hospital. The two strains had a typical Wa-like genome constellation (I1-R1-C1-M1-A1-N1-T1-E1-H1) and shared 100% nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) identities in 10 gene segments, except for VP6. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that genome segments encoding VP7, VP6, VP1, NSP3, and NSP4 of the two strains clustered most closely with porcine, bovine, and equine strains with identities ranging from 86.9-99.9% nt and 97.2-100% aa. Moreover, they consistently formed distinct clusters with some G1P[8], G3P[8], G9P[8], G12P[6], and G12P[8] strains circulating from 2012 to 2019 in Africa (Mozambique, Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi) and Asia (Japan, China, and India) in genome segments encoding six proteins (VP2, VP3, NSP1-NSP2, NSP5/6). The identification of segments exhibiting the closest relationships with animal strains shows significant diversity of rotavirus and suggests the possible occurrence of reassortment events between human and animal strains. This demonstrates the importance of applying next-generation sequencing to monitor and understand the evolutionary changes of strains and evaluate the impact of vaccines on strain diversity.

Targeted and whole-genome sequencing reveal a north-south divide in P. falciparum drug resistance markers and genetic structure in Mozambique.

Mozambique is one of the four African countries which account for over half of all malaria deaths worldwide, yet little is known about the parasite genetic structure in that country. We performed P. falciparum amplicon and whole genome sequencing on 2251 malaria-infected blood samples collected in 2015 and 2018 in seven provinces of Mozambique to genotype antimalarial resistance markers and interrogate parasite population structure using genome-wide microhaplotyes. Here we show that the only resistance-associated markers observed at frequencies above 5% were pfmdr1-184F (59%), pfdhfr-51I/59 R/108 N (99%) and pfdhps-437G/540E (89%). The frequency of pfdhfr/pfdhps quintuple mutants associated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance increased from 80% in 2015 to 89% in 2018 (p < 0.001), with a lower expected heterozygosity and higher relatedness of microhaplotypes surrounding pfdhps mutants than wild-type parasites suggestive of recent selection. pfdhfr/pfdhps quintuple mutants also increased from 72% in the north to 95% in the south (2018; p < 0.001). This resistance gradient was accompanied by a concentration of mutations at pfdhps-436 (17%) in the north, a south-to-north increase in the genetic complexity of P. falciparum infections (p = 0.001) and a microhaplotype signature of regional differentiation. The parasite population structure identified here offers insights to guide antimalarial interventions and epidemiological surveys.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination on diarrheal hospitalizations in children younger than 5 years of age in a rural southern Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccine(Rotarix®) was introduced in Mozambique through its Expanded Program of Immunization in September 2015. We assessed the impact of rotavirus vaccination on childhood gastroenteritis-associated hospitalizations post-vaccine introduction in a high HIV prevalence rural setting of southern Mozambique. METHODS: We reviewed and compared the trend of hospitalizations (prevalence) and incidence rates of acute gastroenteritis (AGE), and rotavirus associated-diarrhea (laboratory confirmed rotavirus) in pre- (January 2008-August 2015) and post-rotavirus vaccine introduction periods (September 2015-December 2020), among children <5 years of age admitted to Manhiça District Hospital. RESULTS: From January 2008 to December 2020, rotavirus vaccination was found to contribute to the decline of the prevalence of AGE from 19% (95% CI: 18.14-20.44) prior to the vaccine introduction to 10% (95% CI: 8.89-11.48) in the post-introduction period, preventing 40% (95 % IE: 38-42) and 84% (95 % IE: 80-87) of the expected AGE and laboratory confirmed rotavirus cases, respectively, among infants. Similarly, the overall incidence of rotavirus was 11.8-fold lower in the post-vaccine introduction period (0.4/1000 child-years-at-risk [CYAR]; 95% CI: 0.3-0.6) compared with the pre-vaccination period (4.7/1000 CYAR; 95% CI: 4.2-5.1) with the highest reduction being observed among infants (16.8-fold lower from the 15.1/1000 CYAR in the pre-vaccine to 0.9/1000 CYAR in the post-vaccine eras). CONCLUSIONS: We documented a significant reduction in all-cause diarrhea hospitalizations and rotavirus positivity after vaccine introduction demonstrating the beneficial impact of rotavirus vaccination in a highly vulnerable population.

The epidemiology of severe malaria at Manhiça District Hospital, Mozambique: a retrospective analysis of 20 years of malaria admissions surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Most malaria burden estimates rely on modelling infection prevalence to case incidence data, with insufficient attention having been paid to the changing clinical presentation of severe disease and its relationship with changing transmission intensity. We present 20 years of longitudinal surveillance data to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between malaria transmission and the burden and clinical presentation of severe malaria and to inform policy. METHODS: This retrospective analysis of clinical surveillance hospital data included all children younger than 15 years admitted with malaria to Manhiça District Hospital (MDH), Mozambique, from July 1, 1997, to June 30, 2017. Case fatality ratios (CFRs) were calculated as the number of patients who died having a specific diagnosis or syndrome divided by the total number of patients with known outcome admitted with that diagnosis or syndrome. FINDINGS: Over the study period, 32 138 children were admitted to MDH with a malaria diagnosis. Malaria accounted for a large proportion of admissions, ranging from 4083 (76·9%) of 5307 admissions in 2000-01 to 706 (27·5%) of 2568 admissions in 2010-11. Since 2000-02, the absolute and relative number of malaria admissions and deaths presented a decreasing trend. The age pattern of patients with malaria shifted to older ages with a median age of 1·7 years (IQR 0·9-3·0) in 1997-2006 and 2·6 years (IQR 1·3-4·4) in 2006-17, although most malaria deaths (60-88% in 2009-17) still occurred in children younger than 5 years. The clinical presentation of severe malaria changed, with an increase in cerebral malaria and a decrease in severe anaemia and respiratory distress, leading to similar yearly cases for the three syndromes. CFRs for severe malaria fluctuated between 1·1% (2 of 186 in 2014-15) and 7·2% (11 of 152 in 2010-11), varying by severe malaria syndrome (3·3% [70 of 2105] for severe anaemia, 5·1% [191 of 3777] for respiratory distress, and 14·8% [72 of 487] for cerebral malaria). Overall malaria CFRs (1·8% [543 of 30 163]) did not vary by age group. INTERPRETATION: Despite the unprecedented scale up of malaria control tools, malaria still represented around 30-40% of paediatric hospital admissions in 2006-17. The age shift towards older children was not accompanied by an increase in severe malaria or deaths; however, control programmes should consider adapting their high-risk target groups to include older children. Malaria remains a leading cause of disease and health-care system use and the massive unfinished malaria control agenda warrants intensified efforts. FUNDING: Spanish Agency for International Cooperation and Development.

Molecular Epidemiology of Rotavirus Strains in Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Children in Manhiça District, Southern Mozambique 2008-2019.

Group A rotaviruses remain the leading cause of diarrhoea in children aged <5 years. Mozambique introduced rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix®) in September 2015. We report rotavirus genotypes circulating among symptomatic and asymptomatic children in Manhiça District, Mozambique, pre- and post-vaccine introduction. Stool was collected from enrolled children and screened for rotavirus by enzyme-immuno-sorbent assay. Positive specimens were genotyped for VP7 (G genotypes) and VP4 (P genotypes) by the conventional reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The combination G12P[8] was more frequently observed in pre-vaccine than in post-vaccine introduction, in moderate to severe diarrhoea (34%, 61/177 vs. 0, p < 0.0001) and controls (23%, 26/113 vs. 0, p = 0.0013) and mixed genotypes (36%, 24/67 vs. 7% 4/58, p = 0.0003) in less severe diarrhoea. We observed changes in post-vaccine compared to pre-vaccine introduction, where G3P[4] and G3P[8] were prevalent in moderate to severe diarrhoea (10%, 5/49 vs. 0, p = 0.0002; and 14%, 7/49 vs. 1%, 1/177, p < 0.0001; respectively), and in less severe diarrhoea (21%, 12/58 vs. 0, p = 0.003; and 24%, 14/58 vs. 0, p < 0.0001; respectively). Our surveillance demonstrated the circulation of similar genotypes contemporaneously among cases and controls, as well as switching from pre- to post-vaccine introduction. Continuous surveillance is needed to evaluate the dynamics of the changes in genotypes following vaccine introduction.

Expression Patterns of Plasmodium falciparum Clonally Variant Genes at the Onset of a Blood Infection in Malaria-Naive Humans.

Clonally variant genes (CVGs) play fundamental roles in the adaptation of Plasmodium falciparum to fluctuating conditions of the human host. However, their expression patterns under the natural conditions of the blood circulation have been characterized in detail for only a few specific gene families. Here, we provide a detailed characterization of the complete P. falciparum transcriptome across the full intraerythrocytic development cycle (IDC) at the onset of a blood infection in malaria-naive human volunteers. We found that the vast majority of transcriptional differences between parasites obtained from the volunteers and the parental parasite line maintained in culture occurred in CVGs. In particular, we observed a major increase in the transcript levels of most genes of the pfmc-2tm and gbp families and of specific genes of other families, such as phist, hyp10, rif, or stevor, in addition to previously reported changes in var and clag3 gene expression. Increased transcript levels of individual pfmc-2tm, rif, and stevor genes involved activation in small subsets of parasites. Large transcriptional differences correlated with changes in the distribution of heterochromatin, confirming their epigenetic nature. Furthermore, the similar expression of several CVGs between parasites collected at different time points along the blood infection suggests that the epigenetic memory for multiple CVG families is lost during transmission stages, resulting in a reset of their transcriptional state. Finally, the CVG expression patterns observed in a volunteer likely infected by a single sporozoite suggest that new epigenetic patterns are established during liver stages. IMPORTANCE The ability of malaria parasites to adapt to changes in the human blood environment, where they produce long-term infection associated with clinical symptoms, is fundamental for their survival. CVGs, regulated at the epigenetic level, play a major role in this adaptive process, as changes in the expression of these genes result in alterations in the antigenic and functional properties of the parasites. However, how these genes are expressed under the natural conditions of the human circulation and how their expression is affected by passage through transmission stages are not well understood. Here, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the expression patterns of these genes at the onset of human blood infections, which reveals major differences with in vitro-cultured parasites. We also show that, during transmission stages, the previous expression patterns for many CVG families are lost, and new patterns are established.

Molecular Characterisation of Cryptosporidium spp. in Mozambican Children Younger than 5 Years Enrolled in a Matched Case-Control Study on the Aetiology of Diarrhoeal Disease.

Cryptosporidium is a leading cause of childhood diarrhoea and associated physical and cognitive impairment in low-resource settings. Cryptosporidium-positive faecal samples (n = 190) from children aged ≤ 5 years enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) in Mozambique detected by ELISA (11.5%, 430/3754) were successfully PCR-amplified and sequenced at the gp60 or ssu rRNA loci for species determination and genotyping. Three Cryptosporidium species including C. hominis (72.6%, 138/190), C. parvum (22.6%, 43/190), and C. meleagridis (4.2%, 8/190) were detected. Children ≤ 23 months were more exposed to Cryptosporidium spp. infections than older children. Both C. hominis and C. parvum were more prevalent among children with diarrhoeal disease compared to those children without it (47.6% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.007 and 23.7% vs. 11.8%, p = 0.014, respectively). A high intra-species genetic variability was observed within C. hominis (subtype families Ia, Ib, Id, Ie, and If) and C. parvum (subtype families IIb, IIc, IIe, and IIi) but not within C. meleagridis (subtype family IIIb). No association between Cryptosporidium species/genotypes and child's age was demonstrated. The predominance of C. hominis and C. parvum IIc suggests that most of the Cryptosporidium infections were anthroponotically transmitted, although zoonotic transmission events also occurred at an unknown rate. The role of livestock, poultry, and other domestic animal species as sources of environmental contamination and human cryptosporidiosis should be investigated in further molecular epidemiological studies in Mozambique.

Rotavirus disease burden pre-vaccine introduction in young children in Rural Southern Mozambique, an area of high HIV prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus vaccines have been adopted in African countries since 2009, including Mozambique (2015). Disease burden data are needed to evaluate the impact of rotavirus vaccine. We report the burden of rotavirus-associated diarrhea in Mozambique from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) before vaccine introduction. METHODS: A case-control study (GEMS), was conducted in Manhiça district, recruiting children aged 0-59 months with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) and less-severe-diarrhea (LSD) between December 2007 and November 2012; including 1-3 matched (age, sex and neighborhood) healthy community controls. Clinical and epidemiological data and stool samples (for laboratory investigation) were collected. Association of rotavirus with MSD or LSD was determined by conditional logistic regression and adjusted attributable fractions (AF) calculated, and risk factors for rotavirus diarrhea assessed. RESULTS: Overall 915 cases and 1,977 controls for MSD, and 431 cases and 430 controls for LSD were enrolled. Rotavirus positivity was 44% (217/495) for cases and 15% (160/1046) of controls, with AF = 34.9% (95% CI: 32.85-37.06) and adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) of 6.4 p< 0.0001 in infants with MSD compared to 30% (46/155) in cases and 14% (22/154) in controls yielding AF = 18.7%, (95% CI: 12.02-25.39) and aOR = 2.8, p = 0.0011 in infants with LSD. The proportion of children with rotavirus was 32% (21/66) among HIV-positive children and 23% (128/566) among HIV-negative ones for MSD. Presence of animals in the compound (OR = 1.9; p = 0.0151) and giving stored water to the child (OR = 2.0, p = 0.0483) were risk factors for MSD; while animals in the compound (OR = 2.37, p = 0.007); not having routine access to water on a daily basis (OR = 1.53, p = 0.015) and washing hands before cooking (OR = 1.76, p = 0.0197) were risk factors for LSD. CONCLUSION: The implementation of vaccination against rotavirus may likely result in a significant reduction of rotavirus-associated diarrhea, suggesting the need for monitoring of vaccine impact.

Pathophysiology of Anemia in HIV-Infected Children Exposed to Malaria.

Anemia is a common condition in HIV-infected children; however, its pathophysiology and the contribution of frequent causes of anemia such as iron deficiency (ID) and malaria are poorly understood. We carried out an ancillary study on the effect of HIV on anemia as part of a case-control study on risk factors of anemia among Mozambican children aged 1-59 months with documented HIV status. Of them, 390 children were admitted to the hospital with anemia (hemoglobin [Hb] < 11 g/dL), whereas 272 children without anemia (Hb ≥ 11 g/dL) were recruited in the community. We assessed differences by HIV status in the presentation of anemia etiological factors and the effect of HIV infection on the association of each factor with anemia. Among the 99 HIV-infected and 563 uninfected children included, HIV-infected anemic children had an increased risk of undernutrition (P < 0.0001), Epstein-Barr virus infection (P < 0.0001), bacteremia (P = 0.0060), a decreased risk of malaria (P < 0.0001), and a similar risk of ID (P = 0.7371) compared with anemic-uninfected children. HIV-infected children were significantly less likely to have anemia associated with Plasmodium falciparum hyperparasitemia (P = 0.0444) and had a lower prevalence of parasitemia in the bone marrow (BM) (P < 0.0001) than anemic-uninfected children. Levels of BM erythropoiesis and dyserythropoiesis were comparable between groups. These findings suggest that the pathophysiology of anemia among HIV-infected malaria-exposed children is not related to HIV-specific effects. For unclear reasons, HIV-infected children had reduced risk of malaria infection, whereas ID prevalence was comparable in HIV-infected and uninfected children, suggesting that iron supplementation recommendations should not be different in HIV-infected children.

Characteristics of Salmonella Recovered From Stools of Children Enrolled in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) determined the etiologic agents of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children under 5 years old in Africa and Asia. Here, we describe the prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility of nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) serovars in GEMS and examine the phylogenetics of Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 isolates. METHODS: Salmonella isolated from children with MSD or diarrhea-free controls were identified by classical clinical microbiology and serotyped using antisera and/or whole-genome sequence data. We evaluated antimicrobial susceptibility using the Kirby-Bauer disk-diffusion method. Salmonella Typhimurium sequence types were determined using multi-locus sequence typing, and whole-genome sequencing was performed to assess the phylogeny of ST313. RESULTS: Of 370 Salmonella-positive individuals, 190 (51.4%) were MSD cases and 180 (48.6%) were diarrhea-free controls. The most frequent Salmonella serovars identified were Salmonella Typhimurium, serogroup O:8 (C2-C3), serogroup O:6,7 (C1), Salmonella Paratyphi B Java, and serogroup O:4 (B). The prevalence of NTS was low but similar across sites, regardless of age, and was similar among both cases and controls except in Kenya, where Salmonella Typhimurium was more commonly associated with cases than controls. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these Salmonella Typhimurium isolates, all ST313, were highly genetically related to isolates from controls. Generally, Salmonella isolates from Asia were resistant to ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone, but African isolates were susceptible to these antibiotics. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm that NTS is prevalent, albeit at low levels, in Africa and South Asia. Our findings provide further evidence that multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhimurium ST313 can be carried asymptomatically by humans in sub-Saharan Africa.

Molecular diversity of Giardia duodenalis in children under 5 years from the Manhiça district, Southern Mozambique enrolled in a matched case-control study on the aetiology of diarrhoea.

Giardia duodenalis is an enteric parasite commonly detected in children. Exposure to this organism may lead to asymptomatic or symptomatic infection. Additionally, early-life infections by this protozoan have been associated with impaired growth and cognitive function in poor resource settings. The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) in Mozambique demonstrated that G. duodenalis was more frequent among controls than in diarrhoeal cases (≥3 loosing stools in the previous 24 hours). However, no molecular investigation was conducted to ascertain the molecular variability of the parasite. Therefore, we describe here the frequency and genetic diversity of G. duodenalis infections in children younger than five years of age with and without diarrhoea from the Manhiça district in southern Mozambique enrolled in the context of GEMS. Genomic DNA from 757 G. duodenalis-positive stool samples by immunoassay collected between 2007-2012, were reanalysed by multiplex PCR targeting the E1-HP and C1-P21 genes for the differentiation of assemblages A and B. Overall, 47% (353) of the samples were successfully amplified in at least one locus. Assemblage B accounted for 90% (319/353) of all positives, followed by assemblage A (8%, 29/353) and mixed A+B infections (1%, 5/353). No association between the presence of a given assemblage and the occurrence of diarrhoea could be demonstrated. A total of 351 samples were further analysed by a multi-locus sequence genotyping (MLSG) approach at the glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh), ß-giardin (bg) and triose phosphate isomerase (tpi) genes. Overall, 63% (222/351) of samples were genotyped and/or sub-genotyped in at least one of the three markers. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of assemblages A (10%; 23/222) and B (90%; 199/222) with high molecular diversity at the nucleotide level within the latter; no mixed infections were identified under the MLSG scheme. Assemblage A sequences were assigned to sub-assemblages AI (0.5%, 1/222), AII (7%, 15/222) or ambiguous AII/AIII (3%, 7/222). Within assemblage B, sequences were assigned to sub-assemblages BIII (13%, 28/222), BIV (14%, 31/222) and ambiguous BIII/BIV (59%, 132/222). BIII/BIV sequences accumulated the majority of the single nucleotide polymorphisms detected, particularly in the form of double peaks at chromatogram inspection. This study demonstrated that the occurrence of gastrointestinal illness (diarrhoea) was not associated to a given genotype of G. duodenalis in Mozambican children younger than five years of age. The assemblage B of the parasite was responsible for nine out of ten infections detected in this paediatric population. The extremely high genetic diversity observed within assemblage B isolates was compatible with an hyperendemic epidemiological scenario where infections and reinfections were common. The obtained molecular data may be indicative of high coinfection rates by different G. duodenalis assemblages/sub-assemblages and/or genetic recombination events, although the exact contribution of both mechanisms to the genetic diversity of the parasite remains unknown.

The Clinical Presentation of Culture-positive and Culture-negative, Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR)-Attributable Shigellosis in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and Derivation of a Shigella Severity Score: Implications for Pediatric Shigella Vaccine Trials.

BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials. METHODS: We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score. RESULTS: Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n = 745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n = 852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age <12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score. CONCLUSIONS: A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity.

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria intervention coverage, morbidity, and mortality in Africa: a geospatial modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control. METHODS: Using an established set of spatiotemporal Bayesian geostatistical models, we generated geospatial estimates across malaria-endemic African countries of the clinical case incidence and mortality of malaria, incorporating an updated database of parasite rate surveys, insecticide-treated net (ITN) coverage, and effective treatment rates. We established a baseline estimate for the anticipated malaria burden in Africa in the absence of COVID-19-related disruptions, and repeated the analysis for nine hypothetical scenarios in which effective treatment with an antimalarial drug and distribution of ITNs (both through routine channels and mass campaigns) were reduced to varying extents. FINDINGS: We estimated 215·2 (95% uncertainty interval 143·7-311·6) million cases and 386·4 (307·8-497·8) thousand deaths across malaria-endemic African countries in 2020 in our baseline scenario of undisrupted intervention coverage. With greater reductions in access to effective antimalarial drug treatment, our model predicted increasing numbers of cases and deaths: 224·1 (148·7-326·8) million cases and 487·9 (385·3-634·6) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction in antimalarial drug coverage; 233·1 (153·7-342·5) million cases and 597·4 (468·0-784·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 242·3 (158·7-358·8) million cases and 715·2 (556·4-947·9) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. Halting planned 2020 ITN mass distribution campaigns and reducing routine ITN distributions by 25%-75% also increased malaria burden to a total of 230·5 (151·6-343·3) million cases and 411·7 (322·8-545·5) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 232·8 (152·3-345·9) million cases and 415·5 (324·3-549·4) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 234·0 (152·9-348·4) million cases and 417·6 (325·5-553·1) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. When ITN coverage and antimalarial drug coverage were synchronously reduced, malaria burden increased to 240·5 (156·5-358·2) million cases and 520·9 (404·1-691·9) thousand deaths with a 25% reduction; 251·0 (162·2-377·0) million cases and 640·2 (492·0-856·7) thousand deaths with a 50% reduction; and 261·6 (167·7-396·8) million cases and 768·6 (586·1-1038·7) thousand deaths with a 75% reduction. INTERPRETATION: Under pessimistic scenarios, COVID-19-related disruption to malaria control in Africa could almost double malaria mortality in 2020, and potentially lead to even greater increases in subsequent years. To avoid a reversal of two decades of progress against malaria, averting this public health disaster must remain an integrated priority alongside the response to COVID-19. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Channel 7 Telethon Trust, Western Australia.